For the record, we’re at over 5.9 million reported Covid-19 cases. On 13 May, it was 4.2 million.

Lockdown Lifted

As of tonight, midnight, the strict lockdown here on Mauritius will be lifted.

Commenting on current Covid-19 figures as at now, the Prime Minister observed that Mauritius has registered three imported Covid-19 cases. These patients were passengers in quarantine but the country has not recorded any new local case over more than a month. Presently, Mauritius is among the first countries to have carried out more screenings per 1,000 inhabitants. As at now, more than 110,000 tests have been conducted. It is on the basis of this data, that Government has taken the decision to ease the curfew on Saturday 30 May 2020 at midnight, he pointed out.

Quite a few of the basic rules will stay in effect. But no shopping in alphabetical groups anymore, and most shops can open, including our Charity Centre.

I hope you understand some French:

The State of Things Globally

When looking a the case numbers, it’s always good to keep in mind that these are reported cases, not actual cases, and not current cases. Obviously, it’s difficult to impossible to know the actual numbers.

But take India, for example, with 173,491 cases as of this morning. In a country of more than one billion people, with tightly packed cities of several millions, this number seems way too low. One indicator for this is their growth rate:

Another country of big concern is Brazil. Their case numbers have been going through the roof lately:

Alas, our neighbour, South Africa, does not look good either:

I think I have mentioned this before, but for me, the absolute case numbers, while important for the current load on the health care systems, are not essential to judge how a country is handling the pandemic, and to assess their state and prospects. Have a look a the shape of the case curve, and you have a good picture, though, especially now, after two months, during which measures could have been put in place, experience could have been acquired to even allow for improvement cycles for said measures. Two months is an eternity in Covid-19 time.

Hence, for the countries above, not good prospects. Essentially fucked. Compare to Austria, for example, which shows how all case curves should look like by now – at least, if not even flatter at the tail end:

There’s also a third case, somewhere in between, that is, halfway fucked. Check out the USA:

With many countries lifting their lockdowns now, and relaxing their rules, the coming two to four weeks will be interesting to watch. The crux of the matter, of course, is that unless we reach a minimum global control, no country will be “safe” in the mid and long term. As of now, we look at numbers of countries that are mostly the effect that country’s specific measures. Also Mauritius keeps its borders closed for now. Opening up within a country is the first step, but opening up the borders for travel will be the real litmus test.

Check out this WP article: Coronavirus may never go away, even with a vaccine.